The Cubs dropped a 4-3 heartbreaker to the Brewers in ten innings on Tuesday night, but forget the loss for a second. The real story is the math that keeps them alive. Despite that collapse, the team sits just a half-game behind the Phillies for the top National League Wild Card spot, per MLB.com. That gap is razor thin, yet the advantage of hosting the tiebreaker series remains within reach. Most fans see the bullpen blowup and panic, but the numbers tell a different, more hopeful tale. You’ve got to look past the immediate chaos and see the actual standing.
The Stakes at Wrigley
Winning the right to host the Wild Card series in your own ballpark is the ultimate prize. Sports Illustrated reports that a cheering Wrigley Field crowd witnessed the Cubs sweep the San Diego Padres in three games last season. They know what it feels like to win there, and that familiarity is a weapon. The pressure is real, but the home-field edge is massive. If the Cubs can hold on, they get to play in their own house while the opponent travels. That is a huge boost for any team fighting for a playoff spot, especially when the season comes down to the wire.
The competition is fierce. The Phillies hold a mere half-game lead after a big win in Houston, per Sports Illustrated. A maximum of 3 games separate the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Padres in this crowded race. Every single game matters now. There is no room for error as the season winds down. The clock is ticking, and the margin for mistake is gone. Can they afford another hiccup like Tuesday? Probably not.
Bullpen Woes and Big Hits
The bullpen instability is a clear threat. According to MLB.com, Jackson Chourio hit a game-tying homer off Jacob Webb with two outs during the ninth inning. In his last six appearances, Webb gave up nine runs over 4 2/3 innings. That is a rough stretch for a pitcher who previously had a 24-game scoreless streak while assuming the closer’s duties. The bad luck is hard to ignore, yet the offense still fought back. Carson Kelly hit a go-ahead two-run double in the top of the ninth inning to briefly take the lead. “Carson had an incredible at-bat to give us the lead,” Counsell noted.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell did not hide the issue after the game. “And then we made a bad pitch. We made a bad pitch with men on base. It’s the one thing that can’t happen there. Unfortunately, it happened,” Counsell said to reporters. He knew the mistake cost them. Even with the loss, the outlook remains surprisingly bright. The Cubs have a 99.0 percent chance of clinching a playoff spot, per reports.
