The Chicago Bears just won their first division title since 2018. Now they face a schedule that looks designed to break them. According to our partners at FanDuel Sportsbook, the over/under win total for the Bears this season is 9.5. That number feels low for a team that just went 11-6. But the schedule tells a different story than the record did.
A Gauntlet Of NFC North Games
Chicago plays in the NFL’s most competitive division. The 2026 slate makes that clear immediately. They face the Minnesota Vikings twice and the Green Bay Packers twice. They also travel to Detroit for Thanksgiving and host them on the final Sunday. According to our partners at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Lions have an over/under of 10.5 wins. The Packers sit at 9.5. The Vikings are set at 8.5. The Bears are right in the middle at 9.5. This division is a war of attrition.
One game stands out as a true nightmare. The Bears play Green Bay on Christmas Day at noon. It airs on Netflix. That is a massive stage for a rivalry that defines the league. The team also faces Detroit again on January 3. That late-season clash could decide the division crown. If Caleb Williams falters, this division will eat him alive.
Tough Road For The Young QB
The Bears enter this year with a new look. They need to prove their 11-6 season was no fluke. The schedule features several prime-time spots that test mental toughness. They play the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in late September. They face the New England Patriots on a Thursday night in October. The Seattle Seahawks come to town for another Monday night game in November. A Christmas Day game against Green Bay caps the year. That is a heavy mental load for a second-year quarterback.
Preseason games offer little rest before the real work starts. The Bears open with Cleveland, then travel to Cincinnati and Tennessee. All games will be aired in the Chicagoland area on FOX32. The NFL Network carries them live or via replay. Fans can check local listings for the exact times. The regular season starts on September 13 in Carolina. It ends on January 3 in Minnesota. The bye week falls in Week 10. That gives the team a chance to rest right before the division gauntlet heats up.
The Verdict On The Win Total
9.5 wins is a reasonable line. It might even be generous. The Bears have to play the Lions twice. They host the Eagles. They travel to Atlanta and Miami. They face the Bills in late December. The schedule is brutal from start to finish. The team cannot afford many mistakes. Caleb Williams must be sharp every single Sunday. The defense has to step up in those prime-time spots.
Can the Bears repeat as division champs? The odds say no. The schedule says no. The win total says no. But the team proved they can win in 2025. They will need that same grit to survive this slate. The path to a second title is narrow. One bad loss in December could ruin the whole season. The fans should expect a fight. The schedule demands it.
Do you think the Bears can clear 9.5 wins this year? Drop your prediction in the comments below.
