The most shocking number for Friday afternoon isn’t a win total or a run count. It’s the fact that the current Reds lineup has hit .376 against David Peterson this season. That number stands at 32-for-85 according to Bleed Cubbie Blue (SBN Cubs). It feels wrong because Peterson has been a rock for the Cubs in his recent outings. He owns a 2.20 ERA over his last eight starts per the same outlet. He also holds a 1.146 WHIP in that same span while allowing just four home runs in 41 innings. Yet when the opponent wears red, the numbers flip upside down in a way that defies logic.
David Peterson has pitched nine innings against the Reds this year. In those nine frames, he has surrendered a 10.13 ERA. His WHIP against Cincinnati sits at a staggering 2.250. This creates a massive problem for the Cubs as they prepare to host the game at Wrigley Field. The team is 22-5 when they score first in home games, but that record means little if the starter gives up runs early. The Cubs have been outscored 7-0 in their last 12 innings, so the offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders to bail out the pitcher.
The Friday Afternoon Curse
History suggests the Cubs struggle when the sun is high on a Friday. The team is just 4-6 at home on Friday games this season. This is a sharp drop from last year, when they finished 10-4 at home on Fridays. The overall record for the Cubs on Fridays is only 10-11. They are 30-29 in day games this season, which shows they can play well in the sun, but the day of the week seems to matter more. The Cubs are 20-15 in sunshine at home, yet the Friday factor drags the winning percentage down significantly.
Even when the offense gets going, the team finds a way to lose. In contests featuring seven or more hits, the Cubs have suffered 29 defeats. They have also lost 29 games with no more than six hits. The total number of losses with seven or more hits matches the losses with fewer hits exactly. Sixteen victories came with six or fewer hits, while 65 wins occurred when at least seven hits were recorded. This tells us that making contact isn’t enough to win games if the pitching or defense fails to hold the lead.
A Look Back at August 28
There is a memory from a past August 28 that offers hope for this Friday. On Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008, the Cubs scored five runs in the eighth inning while trailing the Phillies 4-1. Aramis Ramirez hit a grand slam in that eighth inning to turn the tide. The Cubs won that game 6-4 on Aug. 28, 2008. That date is significant because it shows the team can rally late even when things look bleak. The current team needs that same spark to overcome the poor start against a Reds lineup that hits so well against their ace.
The Reds starter, Rhett Lowder, is coming back from a shoulder issue that kept him out for a month from early May to early June. Since his return, he has a 4.98 ERA. His WHIP stands at 1.500 since coming back. He has allowed 13 home runs in 68.2 innings during this stretch.
