The Chicago Cubs hit three home runs and scored six runs, yet they still lost to the Detroit Tigers. This result breaks a long-standing pattern where the team usually wins when scoring that many runs. According to Bleed Cubbie Blue, the Cubs have won nine games this season when scoring exactly six runs. They’ve lost only two times in that specific scenario. Last night’s game was the second loss in this category.
They usually crush opponents when they score six or more runs. Their record stands at 39-5 in all games where they reach that mark. However, the pitching staff gave up eight runs last night. The team has a terrible 8-21 record when allowing at least six runs. They’re 0-4 when they give up eight runs or more. This defensive collapse outweighed the offensive explosion.
Eight runs given up. Total collapse.
The Power Paradox
Hitting three home runs usually guarantees a win for the Cubs. They hold a 9-4 record when hitting at least three long balls. They also struggle when opponents hit three, with a 10-8 record in those games. Last night marked the first time the team both hit and allowed at least three home runs. They’d won four previous games where both teams hit three homers. The Tigers managed to neutralize the Cubs’ power surge completely.
Pete Crow-Armstrong struggled significantly in his last seven games. He posted a .077 batting average with 11 strikeouts during that stretch. The Cubs lineup needs to find a spark before the game against Detroit. The team must play better baseball to avoid more losses like this one. The Tigers lineup is ready to attack Wrigley Field tonight.
Eleven strikeouts in seven games. Can they recover?
Pitching Matchup and Milestones
David Peterson faces Framber Valdez in a key pitching duel. Peterson has made two starts with the Cubs where he threw at least five innings. He allowed no more than two runs in those outings. He also had a disastrous start where he gave up 10 runs in 3.2 innings. That bad outing was the worst of his career. This is his first start against the Tigers. Only two current Tigers players have ever seen him pitch.
Framber Valdez has had mixed results since joining the Tigers. He has made 19 starts with a 4.10 ERA this season. His strikeout rate is down from last year. His average fastball velocity has also dropped. He threw six shutout innings against the Cubs in Houston on June 29, 2025. Most current Cubs have not seen him much. They are a combined 4-for-32 with 12 strikeouts against him.
The game also saw a historic milestone for the franchise. The seventh run scored by the Tigers was the 100,000th run surrendered by the Cubs. This happened during their 22,517 regular-season games since 1876. The Cubs became the second team to reach six digits in runs allowed. The Phillies are at 102,961 runs allowed. The Cubs have scored the most runs in history at 103,731. The Giants are second with 101,570 runs scored.
100,000 runs allowed. A grim club.
Why This Matters
This game highlights a critical flaw in the team’s current identity. They can hit the ball well but cannot stop the other team from scoring. The offense is strong enough to win, but the defense is too leaky. Fans need to see the pitching staff hold opponents to fewer than six runs. Without that, the home runs won’t matter. The team must fix this imbalance to stay competitive.
The upcoming game offers a chance to reset the season. David Peterson has shown he can be effective when he stays in the game. He needs to avoid the kind of blowup that happened in his third start. The weather forecast looks clear for the game at Wrigley Field. The game will air on Marquee Sports Network. Fans can also watch via the MLB.com live streaming page.
Will Peterson hold the line?
