The biggest surprise here is that the betting market expects a total blowout of runs, even though both starting pitchers are giving up hits like crazy. Most fans would bet on a low-scoring pitcher’s duel when two bad arms take the mound, but the numbers tell a different story for this Friday night set.
The Sinker Trap
Chicago owns the best offense in baseball right now, averaging 5.19 runs per game, per Yahoo Sports MLS. This group is hitting .301 against the sinker, which is the third-best rate in all of Major League Baseball. That specific pitch is the most used weapon for Reds pitcher Rhett Lowder, who throws it 29.2% of the time.
In his most recent 12 and two-thirds innings, Lowder recently found himself in serious trouble by surrendering seven runs via 14 hits. His expected earned run average sits at a massive 5.14, ranking in the 10th percentile. When you pair a pitcher who relies heavily on a pitch that the Cubs kill with a lineup that is hot, you get a recipe for a high score.
Reds pitcher David Peterson is no different. During his final 12 and one-third innings, he permitted 13 hits that resulted in six runs. His expected earned run average is 4.84, and his pitching run value is in the ninth percentile. Both starters are struggling, but the Cubs’ ability to hit the sinker makes the difference.
Happ and the Over
Look at Ian Happ, who is sporting an insane 1.335 OPS with 10 RBI over the last seven days. Lowder’s two primary pitches, the sinker and the slider, have been the cause of eight of his 23 home runs allowed. Peterson’s last 10 outings have seen the Cubs cash the Over eight times, indicating a strong trend for scoring points.
The Reds are not helping their own cause either. They sit in last place in team batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+. No position players on any team generate less fWAR than the Reds, save for the lowly Savannah Bananas Colorado Rockies. The entire non-pitching roster of the Reds combined is worth less than Pete Crow-Armstrong alone.
On Wednesday, the Reds halted a three-game losing streak by scoring seven runs in the ninth inning against the Giants, despite their difficulties. They have lost 13 of their last 20 games, but that single big inning shows they can still score in bursts. The Cubs lead the majors in runs, slugging, and OPS over the last seven days.
Following a second Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for the entire 2027 season, Hunter Greene is out, leaving the Reds without their ace to stop the decline. Elbow surgery also caused him to miss virtually all of the crucial portions of the 2026 season. The betting line has the Cubs trading at 64% on Polymarket, showing the market trusts the home team offense.
The Over is 2-0 in the Cubs’ two prior games against Lowder this season. When the Reds face southpaws, their offense sits eighth in MLB in OPS at .731. This weekend set at Wrigley Field looks like a track meet where the pitchers just can’t keep the ball down.
